SuperintelligenceRecord · yudkowsky-2001-seedai
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Co-founder, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence
Why they matterCo-founder of what became MIRI; a foundational writer on the alignment problem
- Status
- Closed
- Prediction made
- 2001
- Predicted arrival
- 2010
- Interval
- 9 yrs
“I would guess that our final stage of seed AI, going critical, will occur between 2005 and 2020, probably around 2008 or 2010.”
Context
Written when Yudkowsky still expected his own team to build the first AGI. He later shifted MIRI's mission from building AGI to warning about it, publicly citing this class of prediction as an error.
Why it is considered incorrect
No 'seed AI going critical' occurred by 2010, or by 2020; the recursive-self-improvement pathway he described was not realised.
Source
On Deference and Yudkowsky's AI Risk Estimates — EA Forum (quoting Yudkowsky's 2001 'Creating Friendly AI')