Methodology & scope

Scope

The archive collects public predictions about the arrival of artificial general intelligence, strong AI, superintelligence, an intelligence explosion, or the technological singularity, as well as dated predictions about severe labour-market or societal impact from AI.

Inclusion criteria

An entry is added when all of the following hold:

1. The predictor is a researcher, executive, or public intellectual with an identifiable role in AI at the time.
2. The prediction names a specific year or short window.
3. The quote can be attributed to a primary or widely-cited secondary source.
4. Either the predicted date has already passed (a closed record — the predictor has been publicly falsified or has retracted), or the prediction is prominent enough on the public record to be logged now as open pending its target date.

Framing

Each record includes a short, factual context note. The archive does not editorialise about the predictor's judgement or motives; the purpose is to preserve the forecast, its source, and the plainly documented outcome.

Corrections

If a quote is misattributed, taken out of context, or the outcome has materially changed, corrections are welcome. This archive is a living document.