SuperintelligenceRecord · yudkowsky-1999-nano
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Co-founder, Machine Intelligence Research Institute
Why they matterCo-founder of MIRI; among the most influential early writers on AI existential risk and rationality
- Status
- Closed
- Prediction made
- 1999
- Predicted arrival
- 2015
- Interval
- 16 yrs
“I believe that there is a greater than 70% chance that molecular nanotechnology will be developed within the years 2003–2015… nanotechnology, by default, will end up killing everyone.”
Context
One of Yudkowsky's earliest published forecasts, made in his late teens; he has since acknowledged the estimate was badly miscalibrated.
Why it is considered incorrect
No transformative molecular nanotechnology was developed in the 2003–2015 window, and none of the extinction scenarios he described occurred.
Source
On Deference and Yudkowsky's AI Risk Estimates — EA Forum (quoting Yudkowsky's 1999 essays)