AGIRecord · simon-1965
Herbert A. Simon
Professor of Computer Science and Psychology, Carnegie Mellon
Why they matterTuring Award laureate and Nobel laureate in Economics; a founding figure of AI
- Status
- Closed
- Prediction made
- 1965
- Predicted arrival
- 1985
- Interval
- 20 yrs
“Machines will be capable, within twenty years, of doing any work a man can do.”
Context
Written at the height of first-wave AI optimism. Twenty years later the field was in the middle of the second AI winter.
Why it is considered incorrect
By 1985 no general-purpose machine could perform arbitrary human work; symbolic AI had stalled and the second AI winter was underway.
Source
The Shape of Automation for Men and Management — Harper & Row