AGIRecord · moravec-1988
Hans Moravec
Research Professor, Carnegie Mellon Robotics Institute
Why they matterRobotics pioneer; namesake of Moravec's paradox on sensorimotor difficulty
- Status
- Closed
- Prediction made
- 1988
- Predicted arrival
- 2010
- Interval
- 22 yrs
“I am confident that this exponential growth will lead to computers with humanlike abilities by around 2010.”
Context
Moravec extrapolated from hardware trends alone.
Why it is considered incorrect
2010 arrived with impressive narrow AI but no system exhibiting humanlike general capability; the hardware extrapolation held, the capability did not.
Source
Mind Children: The Future of Robot and Human Intelligence — Harvard University Press