AGIRecord · legg-2011
Shane Legg
Co-founder and Chief AGI Scientist, DeepMind
Why they matterDeepMind co-founder and Chief AGI Scientist; co-author of one of the standard formal definitions of intelligence
- Status
- Closed
- Prediction made
- 2011
- Predicted arrival
- 2018
- Interval
- 7 yrs
“I think human level AI will be passed in the mid 2020s… my modal estimate would be around 2025, with a distribution that puts significant mass on the years around 2018.”
Context
Legg gave a distribution rather than a single date.
Why it is considered incorrect
The lower tail he flagged as plausible (around 2018) passed without human-level AI on his own criteria.
Source
Q&A with Shane Legg on risk from AI — LessWrong