SuperintelligenceRecord · good-1965
I. J. Good
Statistician, Virginia Polytechnic Institute
Why they matterBletchley Park cryptanalyst; originated the intelligence-explosion argument
- Status
- Closed
- Prediction made
- 1965
- Predicted arrival
- 2000
- Interval
- 35 yrs
“It is more probable than not that, within the twentieth century, an ultraintelligent machine will be built.”
Context
The foundational statement of the intelligence-explosion idea.
Why it is considered incorrect
The twentieth century closed with no machine matching, let alone exceeding, general human intelligence.
Source
Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine — Advances in Computers, Vol. 6