Nick Bostrom
Philosopher, University of Oxford (later Director, Future of Humanity Institute)
Why they matterAuthor of Superintelligence; the most cited philosopher on machine superintelligence and existential risk from AI
- Status
- Open
- Prediction made
- 1998
- Predicted arrival
- 2033
- Interval
- 35 yrs
“This paper outlines the case for believing that we will have superhuman artificial intelligence within the first third of the next [i.e. this] century.”
Context
Bostrom argues from estimates of the brain's computational capacity plus Moore's law that human-equivalent hardware arrives between 2004 and 2024, that the basic principles of biological brains could be well enough understood within about fifteen years, and that superintelligence follows soon after human-level AI — placing superhuman artificial intelligence within the first third of the 21st century.