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AGIRecord · altman-2021

Sam Altman

CEO, OpenAI

Why they matterCEO of OpenAI

Status
Closed
Prediction made
2021
Predicted arrival
2025
Interval
4 yrs

In the next five years, computer programs that can think will read legal documents and give medical advice. In the next decade, they will do assembly-line work and maybe even become companions.

Context

Altman's most-cited pre-ChatGPT framing of near-term AI economic disruption.

Why it is considered incorrect

Five years on, no AI system reliably 'reads legal documents and gives medical advice' at professional standard without human oversight; deployment remains assistive rather than autonomous, and no system does assembly-line work or serves as a general companion.

Source

Moore's Law for Everything moores.samaltman.com